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Construction Costs Update: Escalation, Labor, and Market Forces Shaping Project Budgets

By Thad Berkes

February 3, 2026

It’s no surprise that megaprojects have dominated the commercial construction market in 2025 with $134 billion dollars at a 47% increase from 2024.

The growth with AI and the need for more data centers has had a persistent demand for commercial construction without showing any slowing down.

Construction Crew
Construction Crew
  • “Activity remains strong, with data centers and industrial projects continuing to be major drivers of demand, while healthcare, sports, and aviation markets remain very active.”

    Attilio Rivetti Vice President, Turner Construction

2025 Escalation Report

Design Collaborative uses multiple resources to assist in forecasting expected escalation to help team members along with clients with cost increases that may accrue during the design process.

2025 Escalation Quarterly Reports

4th Quarter 2025 – 1.15% (prediction)

3rd Quarter 2025 – 1.15%

2nd Quarter 2025 – 1.17%

1st Quarter 2025 – 1.18%

2025 Escalation – 5.80%

2025 Construction Unemployment Rates

Unemployment rates have had the usual ups and downs depending on weather conditions, but nothing has stood out looking back at historical rates.

Indiana was among the lowest estimated construction unemployment rate of 2.2%. Ranking 4th in the country with North Carolina coming in at 3.7%. The national average in the United States was 4.6% for 2025.

The graph below from the FRED for unemployment has not seasonally adjusted for the past 5 years. We have not seen much of a difference when it comes to unemployment rates around at a higher figure of 7% during the winter months and 3% lower figure throughout the summer cycles.

Construction employees in the construction sector include: Working supervisors, qualified craft workers, mechanics, apprentices, helpers, laborers, and so forth, engaged in new work, alterations, demolition, repair, maintenance, and the like, whether working at the site of construction or in shops or yards at jobs (such as precutting and preassembling) ordinarily performed by members of the construction trades.

Skilled Labor

The FRED has not shown a significant construction hourly earnings growth for 2025. The expectation is that the high demand for skilled workers would create a larger demand for higher wages, attractive benefits, including pension plans, and opportunities for advancement. These effects have not yet been seen as high as anticipated.

“An aging workforce, with five tradespersons retiring for every two replacements, combined with a cultural bias toward college degrees over vocational training, has created a persistent skills gap”. Forbes

Immigration policies will likely remain a critical factor, as nearly 10% of construction and extraction workers are foreign-born, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. “Changes in visa regulations and immigration policies could further restrict labor availability in the industry”. Deloitte

Tariffs

Tariffs have been uncertain throughout 2025 and the potential for new or increased costs are expected to continue throughout 2026. It’s important to state this with our clients and perhaps hold an allowance to help cover the additional costs until construction materials have been purchased.

Construction Worker with Steel Rebar
Construction Worker with Steel Rebar

Supply Chain

Construction supply chains in 2025 faced ongoing challenges like material cost volatility (steel, lumber, copper) due to tariffs and inflation, persistent labor shortages, and unpredictable geopolitical events.

The Year Ahead

Commercial construction demand is expected to remain strong into 2026, with continued cost pressure tied to escalation, labor availability, tariffs, and supply chain conditions. Monitoring escalation forecasts, workforce trends, and material risks will remain important as teams plan budgets, evaluate allowances, and navigate cost impacts during design and preconstruction.

Construction Worker Drilling Wood Board
Construction Worker Drilling Wood Board

Need help navigating cost uncertainty? Our team works alongside owners and project teams to evaluate escalation, forecast budgets, and plan for risk early in the process. Whether you’re validating a cost projection or planning your next project, we’re ready to help. Contact us to start a conversation.

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